← HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
Fire SuzakuTier 1
at HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
decks
2
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-6-1
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.3%
avg ELO +4.8 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1189
· median 1189
· range 1114–1265
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
991
Q1 1140
Q3 1370
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 23.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 67.9% | +17.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 15.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.6% | +6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
