← HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
decks
3
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
8-6-2
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1361
· median 1369
· range 1345–1370
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
991
Q1 1140
Q3 1370
1599
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 23.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.9% | -3.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 15.4% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -7.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.8% | +4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
