← HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
Wind AlliesTier 2
at HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
decks
2
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
4-7-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.3%
avg ELO -5.4 per match
expected value
40.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1302
· range 1141–1463
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
991
Q1 1140
Q3 1370
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 23.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.2% | -11.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 34.2% | -15.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
