← HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
Water GenbuTier 1
at HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
decks
2
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.4%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1341
· median 1341
· range 1255–1427
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
991
Q1 1140
Q3 1370
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 23.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 15.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
