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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.5% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 51.7% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.9% | -5.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hidden Enclave | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |