EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Geek Culture HVN Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 5.0% | 25 | 64.0% | 61.6% | 56.4% | 56.6% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 8 | 10.0% | 45 | 55.6% | 54.1% | 55.7% | 55.1% | 1362 | — |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 5 | 6.2% | 27 | 64.8% | 61.1% | 55.3% | 54.3% | 1435 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Penguin Mill | 2 | 2.5% | 14 | 50.0% | 47.3% | 50.9% | 49.9% | 1370 | — |
| 5 | Fire Suzaku | 4 | 5.0% | 22 | 54.5% | 54.5% | 50.8% | 51.5% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 9 | 11.2% | 54 | 53.7% | 48.9% | 50.6% | 48.1% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 10 | 12.5% | 60 | 55.8% | 54.0% | 50.5% | 50.4% | 1360 | — |
| 8 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 53.7% | 49.7% | 49.6% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 7 | 8.8% | 44 | 46.6% | 46.6% | 49.6% | 48.9% | 1401 | — |
| 10 | Water Genbu | 7 | 8.8% | 36 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 48.8% | 50.0% | 1399 | — |
| 11 | Wind Luxem Zander | 3 | 3.8% | 16 | 40.6% | 39.8% | 48.2% | 47.1% | 1323 | — |
| 12 | Water Overlord | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 35.7% | 42.6% | 47.4% | 47.9% | 1368 | — |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 58.7% | 47.2% | 51.6% | 1291 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 45.6% | 46.4% | 46.7% | 1266 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 1.2% | 6 | 25.0% | 46.3% | 45.0% | 48.5% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Aggro | 12 | 15.0% | 58 | 44.0% | 47.2% | 44.4% | 46.5% | 1294 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 28.6% | 36.8% | 42.4% | 43.6% | 1405 | — |
| 18 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 28.6% | 35.5% | 41.2% | 41.6% | 1404 | — |
| 19 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 32.4% | 41.0% | 40.1% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 35.7% | 39.5% | 39.9% | 40.5% | 1345 | — |
| 21 | Fire Rai | 1 | 1.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 39.1% | 35.4% | 40.9% | 1074 | ↓ low |