EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Abyssal Heaven Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 100.0% | 71.3% | 63.9% | 60.9% | 1542 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 2 | 6.9% | 10 | 65.0% | 62.4% | 57.6% | 58.6% | 1326 | — |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 6.9% | 10 | 60.0% | 51.2% | 54.4% | 52.1% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 10.3% | 13 | 69.2% | 46.7% | 53.0% | 45.4% | 1384 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 7 | 24.1% | 23 | 54.3% | 58.4% | 51.4% | 53.8% | 1256 | — |
| 6 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.9% | 8 | 43.8% | 51.7% | 50.5% | 51.5% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 50.0% | 37.4% | 49.3% | 45.7% | 1454 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Exia | 2 | 6.9% | 8 | 43.8% | 38.8% | 48.8% | 44.7% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.4% | 48.0% | 50.3% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 57.3% | 47.5% | 52.8% | 1033 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 30.0% | 36.0% | 43.8% | 42.1% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 6.9% | 9 | 44.4% | 44.4% | 41.3% | 42.2% | 1306 | — |
| 13 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 3.4% | 4 | 0.0% | 38.2% | 40.0% | 45.7% | 1074 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Diana | 1 | 3.4% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.2% | 40.0% | 44.1% | 1022 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 6.9% | 10 | 40.0% | 54.7% | 39.9% | 43.8% | 1157 | ↓ low |