EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN 店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.2% | 8 | 81.2% | 68.1% | 61.4% | 59.6% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.9% | 56.7% | 57.7% | 1079 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 2 | 8.3% | 13 | 69.2% | 53.9% | 56.1% | 52.5% | 1467 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.0% | 54.0% | 53.4% | 1307 | — |
| 5 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.8% | 53.3% | 54.1% | 1068 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 4 | 16.7% | 21 | 54.8% | 54.0% | 51.8% | 52.7% | 1273 | — |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.2% | 6 | 58.3% | 47.8% | 51.5% | 48.8% | 1320 | — |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.2% | 6 | 58.3% | 44.5% | 50.7% | 46.3% | 1591 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 61.8% | 48.9% | 54.6% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 4 | 16.7% | 17 | 44.1% | 46.2% | 48.3% | 47.8% | 1203 | — |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.2% | 46.7% | 50.8% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Neos | 2 | 8.3% | 7 | 21.4% | 36.1% | 43.7% | 45.0% | 1119 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 4.2% | 3 | 16.7% | 40.5% | 41.3% | 44.9% | 1300 | — |
| 14 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 8.3% | 9 | 22.2% | 33.4% | 41.2% | 41.8% | 1300 | — |
| 15 | Slimes | 1 | 4.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 39.0% | 39.6% | 1096 | ↓ low |