DTR Win-A-Case

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Rile	Tier 1	15	33.3%	43-27-4	60.8%	50.2%	55.5%	50.0%	1376	—
2		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	6	13.3%	14-17-1	45.3%	50.1%	47.5%	50.1%	1391	—
3		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	5	11.1%	10-19-2	35.5%	49.9%	42.6%	49.9%	1266	↓ low
4		Fire Suited	Tier 1	4	8.9%	17-10-4	61.3%	50.2%	55.2%	50.2%	1469	↑ top
5		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	3	6.7%	13-8-1	61.4%	50.5%	52.0%	50.0%	1403	↑ top
6		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 1	3	6.7%	9-7-0	56.2%	49.9%	51.2%	50.2%	1389	—
7		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	2	4.4%	4-7-1	37.5%	50.0%	48.1%	50.3%	1285	—
8		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	2	4.4%	7-7-0	50.0%	50.4%	47.5%	49.9%	1183	↓ low
9		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 1	2	4.4%	7-3-2	66.7%	50.5%	52.4%	50.1%	1381	—
10		Water Allies	Tier 2	2	4.4%	7-8-0	46.7%	50.0%	45.9%	50.0%	1308	—
11		Water Genbu	Tier 2	2	4.4%	7-6-1	53.6%	50.4%	46.0%	49.6%	1237	↓ low
12		Water Umbra Guardian	Tier 2	2	4.4%	0-10-0	0.0%	47.5%	35.8%	49.2%	1194	↓ low
13		Fire Aetherwing	Tier 2	1	2.2%	0-4-0	0.0%	48.3%	35.7%	49.0%	1159	↓ low
14		Fire Byakko	Tier 2	1	2.2%	3-5-0	37.5%	49.7%	41.5%	49.5%	1345	—
15		Fire Exia	Tier 2	1	2.2%	4-5-0	44.4%	48.9%	46.6%	49.5%	1528	↑ top
16		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	2.2%	7-2-0	77.8%	51.1%	58.0%	50.5%	1582	↑ top
17		Fire Oblation	Tier 2	1	2.2%	2-3-0	40.0%	49.6%	42.8%	49.3%	1239	↓ low
18		Fire Tera Cleric	Tier 2	1	2.2%	1-4-0	20.0%	48.6%	40.6%	49.2%	1208	↓ low
19		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	2.2%	0-2-0	0.0%	48.5%	40.0%	49.1%	1170	↓ low
20		Water Aetherwing	Tier 2	1	2.2%	5-2-0	71.4%	52.8%	54.7%	51.0%	1207	↓ low
21		Water Astra Ranger	Tier 2	1	2.2%	0-2-0	0.0%	49.3%	40.0%	49.9%	1180	↓ low
22		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	2.2%	2-6-0	25.0%	49.5%	40.0%	49.7%	1278	—
23		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	2.2%	5-4-1	55.0%	49.5%	54.8%	50.0%	1471	↑ top
24		Wind Ciel	Tier 2	1	2.2%	5-4-1	55.0%	50.5%	50.8%	50.2%	1444	↑ top

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Rile 15 decks · 33.3%
• Wind Shadowstrike 6 decks · 13.3%
• Fire Aggro 5 decks · 11.1%
• Fire Suited 4 decks · 8.9%
• Fire Crux Mage 3 decks · 6.7%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 3 decks · 6.7%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 2 decks · 4.4%
• Fire Suzaku 2 decks · 4.4%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 2 decks · 4.4%
• Water Allies 2 decks · 4.4%
• Water Genbu 2 decks · 4.4%
• Water Umbra Guardian 2 decks · 4.4%
• Fire Aetherwing 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Byakko 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Exia 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Oblation 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Tera Cleric 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 2.2%
• Water Aetherwing 1 deck · 2.2%
• Water Astra Ranger 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Astra Cleric 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Ciel 1 deck · 2.2%