Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at DTR Win-A-Case
decks
2
(4.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
0-10-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
35.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1194
· median 1194
· range 1193–1196
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1104
Q1 1208
Q3 1426
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 48.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
