Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at DTR Win-A-Case
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Suited | 8.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Martial Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |