Water GenbuTier 2
at DTR Win-A-Case
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Suited | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 51.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Ciel | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pride's Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clockwork Musicbox | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Buried Grief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |