Fire RileTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 15 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Blink 82 cards · placed #1
• ZelphionXXL 81 cards · placed #2
• Noel 85 cards · placed #5
• Neoniclax 83 cards · placed #7
• Jimmyle 85 cards · placed #10
• Rhea 86 cards · placed #11
• TheRainGoddess 86 cards · placed #17
• Tsubasa2140 82 cards · placed #18
• Jujuwu 85 cards · placed #20
• rexaren 83 cards · placed #25
• Harmonic709 83 cards · placed #27
• FacelessMenace 85 cards · placed #28
• Ver 85 cards · placed #32
• GameTimeSean 83 cards · placed #36
• Slayer13x 85 cards · placed #43

In 14 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Fluffy Shopkeep, Crux Sight, Reduce to Ash. Losers more often ran: Backup Charger, Chalice of Blood, Spirit of Serene Fire.

↑ Played more by winners

Fluffy Shopkeep

Winning decks ran 2.1 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 8, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 5.

Crux Sight

Winning decks ran 1.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 6.

Reduce to Ash

Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.2.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 5.

Spirit Blade: Ensoul

Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.4.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 7.

Lorraine, Wandering Warrior

Winning decks ran 0.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 7.

Resolute Stand

Winning decks ran 2.6 copies on average, losing decks 2.2.

Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 6.

↓ Played more by losers

Backup Charger

Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.6.

Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 9.

Chalice of Blood

Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 9.

Spirit of Serene Fire

Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 6, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 5.

Staggering Strike

Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 11.