Fire AggroTier 2
at Illusive Webcam Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.3% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 48.6% | -0.9 |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 56.0% | +4.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.2% | +2.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.8% | +2.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Clumsy Apprentice, Sable Remnant, Demolition. Losers more often ran: Rending Flames.
Show all 67 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Humpty Dumpty, Fate's Fall | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incinerated Templar | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebound Draug | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |