Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Illusive Webcam Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +0.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 52.6% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 45.8% | -2.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Water Neos | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |