Water AlliesTier 2
at Illusive Webcam Regionals
decks
3
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-9-1
overall winrate
44.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
46.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1383
· median 1376
· range 1353–1420
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1309
Q3 1491
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 51.4% | +0.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
