Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Illusive Webcam Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 58.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 47.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.7% | +3.5 |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Neos | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Brackish Lutist, Innervate Agility, Resolute Stand. Losers more often ran: Crystallized Destiny, Safeguard Amulet, Spirelle, Schwartz Queen.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Winbless Lookout | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Reclaim | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Zephyr | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |