← Weatherlight Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.8% | +8.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -2.7 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +4.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |