← Weatherlight Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Weatherlight Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-7-0
overall winrate
36.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.1%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1263
· median 1263
· range 1058–1468
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1207
Q3 1420
1513
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.0% | +4.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
