EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Regional @ CM Dunedin.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 100.0% | 61.5% | 60.0% | 54.6% | 1558 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 56.6% | 56.4% | 53.9% | 1454 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 55.0% | 55.2% | 52.1% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 65.6% | 54.7% | 58.4% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 71.4% | 67.0% | 54.5% | 56.3% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 63.6% | 57.9% | 53.9% | 54.1% | 1275 | — |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 51.5% | 52.9% | 50.4% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.1% | 52.7% | 54.1% | 1316 | — |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 3 | 9.4% | 13 | 46.2% | 47.6% | 51.2% | 51.7% | 1286 | — |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 56.5% | 50.0% | 53.5% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 57.6% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Allies | 4 | 12.5% | 21 | 50.0% | 45.3% | 49.9% | 48.7% | 1343 | — |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 15.6% | 26 | 48.1% | 45.2% | 48.9% | 47.9% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 41.7% | 47.3% | 48.0% | 50.1% | 1219 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.9% | 47.7% | 48.9% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 39.6% | 47.5% | 44.2% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Wind Tera Tamer | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 57.2% | 46.7% | 52.4% | 957 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 49.1% | 46.0% | 47.5% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 44.1% | 46.0% | 46.3% | 1291 | — |
| 20 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 49.8% | 44.4% | 49.7% | 1093 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 0.0% | 34.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | 1033 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 28.8% | 40.0% | 44.1% | 1150 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Cats | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 41.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | 1113 | ↓ low |