← ArtofCards DTR Store Championship
Fire ExiaTier 2
at ArtofCards DTR Store Championship
decks
3
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
4-7-2
overall winrate
38.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
41.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1400
· median 1376
· range 1332–1493
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1139
Q1 1316
Q3 1481
1633
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 66.7% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 45.9% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 13.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +23.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
