← ArtofCards DTR Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 2
at ArtofCards DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 66.7% | 12 | 5-5-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 22.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +1.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 13.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.8 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |