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Wind Wakeup ComboTier 2

at ArtofCards DTR Store Championship

decks
4 (11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23 10-13-0
overall winrate
43.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8% avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
46.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1312 · median 1330 · range 1145–1442 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1139 Q1 1316 Q3 1481 1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 66.7% 10 4-6-0 40.0% 42.9% 44.9% -2.3
Fire Crux Mage 22.2% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 63.9% +8.9
Horse and Taxes 13.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.0% -17.5
Fire Exia 8.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.1% -14.2
Water Genbu 8.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.6% -18.2
Wind Shadowstrike 8.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.8% +14.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.6% 0
Fire Oblation 5.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.0% -8.0
Fire Aetherwing 2.8% 0
Fire Astra Cleric 2.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.6% -6.3
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.8% +14.1
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.8% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Wakeup Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Diana, Aether Dilettante +1.00 1 0 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Tristan, Underhanded -1.00 0 1 0
Eternal Magistrate -1.00 0 1 0
Blinding Orb -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Consumption Ring +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/31564/archetypes/Wind Wakeup Combo