Fire RileTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 24 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Replagas 83 cards · placed #1
• Dexter 84 cards · placed #2
• Chunyi 88 cards · placed #3
• Slaine 83 cards · placed #4
• Chuwubs 85 cards · placed #6
• Naberus 83 cards · placed #7
• Kwaytiao 85 cards · placed #9
• Miaotato 83 cards · placed #11
• Joven 85 cards · placed #12
• ImCryingAgain 83 cards · placed #13
• JCee 85 cards · placed #15
• UBVOLA 81 cards · placed #17
• Weihaoo 84 cards · placed #21
• Aqua 87 cards · placed #22
• Mono 73 cards · placed #23
• WinotaRinSeri 87 cards · placed #24
• Drakoitzu 83 cards · placed #26
• NevaeHeaven 85 cards · placed #29
• MrJack 85 cards · placed #30
• Djinn 83 cards · placed #31
• Zefier 85 cards · placed #32
• IvanTan 83 cards · placed #33
• Zetdivx 83 cards · placed #34
• Justinljw 83 cards · placed #35

In 27 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 6 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Fluffy Shopkeep, Resolute Stand, Inert Sword. Losers more often ran: Fast Cure, Tariff Ring, Heavenly Guide.

↑ Played more by winners

Fluffy Shopkeep

Winning decks ran 2.1 copies on average, losing decks 1.8.

Of 27 mirrors: the winner ran more in 14, the loser ran more in 6, both ran the same in 7.

Resolute Stand

Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.6.

Of 27 mirrors: the winner ran more in 10, the loser ran more in 5, both ran the same in 12.

Inert Sword

Winning decks ran 0.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.

Of 27 mirrors: the winner ran more in 9, the loser ran more in 4, both ran the same in 14.

Blanche, Sheltering Saint

Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 27 mirrors: the winner ran more in 12, the loser ran more in 7, both ran the same in 8.

Cremation Ritual

Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.9.

Of 27 mirrors: the winner ran more in 10, the loser ran more in 5, both ran the same in 12.

Orb of Hubris

Winning decks ran 0.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 27 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 20.

↓ Played more by losers

Fast Cure

Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.1.

Of 27 mirrors: the loser ran more in 11, the winner ran more in 5, both ran the same in 11.

Tariff Ring

Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.

Of 27 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 4, both ran the same in 15.

Heavenly Guide

Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.

Of 27 mirrors: the loser ran more in 11, the winner ran more in 8, both ran the same in 8.

Merlin, Memory Thief

Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.

Of 27 mirrors: the loser ran more in 6, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 18.

Sudden Steel

Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 27 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 4, both ran the same in 16.

Spirit Blade: Ascension

Losing decks ran 1.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.

Of 27 mirrors: the loser ran more in 6, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 18.