← Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship - Distorted Reflections .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 78.6% | 67.8% | 57.3% | 56.9% | 1342 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 58.4% | 55.3% | 54.6% | 1356 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 9.1% | 12 | 70.8% | 66.3% | 55.0% | 54.9% | 1321 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 52.6% | 54.5% | 52.0% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.9% | 54.3% | 52.0% | 1257 | — |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 60.0% | 57.9% | 52.8% | 53.0% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 40.6% | 51.2% | 47.8% | 1532 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Allies | 2 | 9.1% | 9 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 50.8% | 50.7% | 1278 | — |
| 9 | Water Neos | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 50.0% | 47.3% | 48.7% | 47.7% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.2% | 48.6% | 51.3% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Suited | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.9% | 47.5% | 48.1% | 1311 | — |
| 13 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.7% | 46.7% | 47.9% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Umbra Guardian | 2 | 9.1% | 8 | 18.8% | 34.4% | 43.0% | 44.8% | 1188 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 9.1% | 7 | 14.3% | 31.2% | 41.0% | 42.3% | 1229 | — |
| 16 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.6% | 40.0% | 42.3% | 1100 | ↓ low |