EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GG Adelaide DTR Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 2 | 7.1% | 9 | 72.2% | 57.9% | 55.8% | 53.6% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.4% | 55.3% | 58.0% | 1215 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 54.8% | 55.4% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Rile | 7 | 25.0% | 31 | 61.3% | 56.7% | 54.7% | 53.4% | 1371 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 54.9% | 53.8% | 50.6% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 63.6% | 44.1% | 53.6% | 46.4% | 1439 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 73.1% | 53.3% | 57.5% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 54.5% | 56.0% | 51.9% | 51.9% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Ciel | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.2% | 51.5% | 54.2% | 1283 | — |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.5% | 48.6% | 47.6% | 1327 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 45.5% | 48.7% | 47.8% | 50.4% | 1223 | — |
| 12 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 53.8% | 47.4% | 48.1% | 1252 | — |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 49.3% | 42.5% | 48.6% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 31.8% | 28.2% | 42.0% | 38.6% | 1316 | — |
| 15 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.6% | 7 | 21.4% | 43.8% | 40.8% | 46.1% | 1262 | — |
| 16 | Slimes | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 0.0% | 28.2% | 40.0% | 41.5% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Suited | 3 | 10.7% | 9 | 38.9% | 50.5% | 38.2% | 43.8% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 34.9% | 38.3% | 1046 | ↓ low |