EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.8% | 8 | 81.2% | 66.4% | 56.7% | 55.3% | 1303 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 9.5% | 13 | 65.4% | 53.3% | 54.8% | 52.0% | 1424 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 70.0% | 66.1% | 53.6% | 55.7% | 1267 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Suited | 2 | 9.5% | 13 | 50.0% | 58.0% | 52.7% | 55.0% | 1299 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 9.5% | 12 | 62.5% | 56.9% | 52.7% | 52.5% | 1369 | — |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 57.4% | 51.0% | 53.5% | 1258 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 2 | 9.5% | 11 | 45.5% | 34.1% | 50.2% | 45.7% | 1322 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 62.1% | 50.2% | 56.8% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.4% | 48.9% | 48.8% | 1203 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 34.7% | 48.8% | 44.4% | 1607 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 56.0% | 48.6% | 51.4% | 1317 | — |
| 12 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 39.9% | 46.7% | 46.6% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Allies | 3 | 14.3% | 15 | 33.3% | 34.1% | 44.9% | 44.6% | 1253 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.1% | 44.0% | 43.6% | 1578 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 9.5% | 7 | 28.6% | 50.6% | 43.0% | 48.7% | 1318 | — |