← Ember Rest - Store Championship 16AUG25
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ember Rest - Store Championship 16AUG25.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 5.9% | 8 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 71.9% | 66.5% | 1374 | — |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 17.6% | 17 | 64.7% | 57.9% | 56.6% | 54.7% | 1465 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Rile | 8 | 47.1% | 29 | 58.6% | 52.8% | 55.7% | 52.6% | 1438 | — |
| 4 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 7 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 49.5% | 51.1% | 1416 | — |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 39.1% | 47.1% | 46.1% | 1616 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 2 | 11.8% | 13 | 53.8% | 55.7% | 46.3% | 48.5% | 1341 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 11.8% | 11 | 50.0% | 44.5% | 46.2% | 46.2% | 1536 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.7% | 40.6% | 46.4% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 11.8% | 7 | 14.3% | 42.2% | 40.4% | 46.5% | 1312 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 0.0% | 26.1% | 40.0% | 41.6% | 1270 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 11.8% | 10 | 20.0% | 35.7% | 36.5% | 41.4% | 1348 | ↓ low |