EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 4.7% | 17 | 76.5% | 72.8% | 62.5% | 64.0% | 1248 | — |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.3% | 8 | 81.2% | 72.0% | 57.1% | 58.7% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 4.7% | 15 | 63.3% | 62.7% | 55.7% | 57.2% | 1265 | — |
| 4 | Water Allies | 4 | 9.3% | 22 | 59.1% | 40.3% | 55.5% | 44.2% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 2.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.7% | 54.8% | 55.9% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Rile | 18 | 41.9% | 91 | 54.9% | 51.7% | 53.9% | 52.8% | 1309 | — |
| 7 | Fire Suited | 1 | 2.3% | 9 | 66.7% | 68.2% | 53.8% | 58.5% | 1259 | — |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.3% | 8 | 68.8% | 65.7% | 52.0% | 54.4% | 1261 | — |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 4 | 9.3% | 30 | 56.7% | 49.2% | 51.6% | 48.9% | 1291 | — |
| 10 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.3% | 10 | 60.0% | 61.0% | 50.4% | 54.0% | 1299 | — |
| 11 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 2.3% | 8 | 37.5% | 41.9% | 49.2% | 47.6% | 1293 | — |
| 12 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 4.7% | 14 | 50.0% | 41.1% | 48.6% | 46.2% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 2.3% | 7 | 28.6% | 40.1% | 47.6% | 48.7% | 1113 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Oblation | 1 | 2.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.0% | 46.2% | 47.3% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Rile | 1 | 2.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.0% | 46.2% | 47.3% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Genbu | 2 | 4.7% | 13 | 42.3% | 54.5% | 45.0% | 51.0% | 1142 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 2.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.9% | 43.8% | 48.9% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Fractal | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.6% | 42.9% | 46.0% | 1244 | — |
| 19 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 2.3% | 8 | 37.5% | 44.9% | 41.4% | 45.6% | 1304 | — |
| 20 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 2.3% | 8 | 37.5% | 48.7% | 41.3% | 47.4% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Allies | 2 | 4.7% | 15 | 26.7% | 37.9% | 41.2% | 44.9% | 1111 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 29.9% | 40.5% | 38.8% | 1149 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 11.6% | 27 | 35.2% | 44.2% | 36.5% | 42.1% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 0.0% | 22.3% | 36.0% | 37.8% | 1121 | ↓ low |