Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 三咖啡店冠賽
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-2-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.0%
avg ELO -17.3 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
38.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1409
· median 1409
· range 1409–1409
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1175
Q1 1223
Q3 1393
1543
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 24.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
