← 三咖啡店冠賽

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at 三咖啡店冠賽

decks
6 (24.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17 6-10-1
overall winrate
38.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.2% avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
47.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304 · median 1259 · range 1202–1539 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1175 Q1 1223 Q3 1393 1543
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Suzaku 12.0% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.1% -0.6
Wind Seiryuu 12.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% +0.5
Fire Aggro 4.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.0% -14.5
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 33.4% -26.6
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.9% +6.2
Fire Tera Cleric 4.0% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.0% 0
Water Aetherwing 4.0% 0
Water Fractal 4.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.5% +12.0
Wind Arcane 4.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.7% +12.3
Wind Ciel 4.0% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 4.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.3% -2.7
Wind Luxem Zander 4.0% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 48.3% -1.6
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.2% -9.3
Wind Zander 4.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 30.0% -19.2
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Blackmarket Broker, Spirelle, Schwartz Queen. Losers more often ran: Zephyr, Resolute Stand, Safeguard Amulet.

Played more by winners
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 2.5 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Blackmarket Broker
Winning decks ran 1.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen
Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Innervate Agility
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Penumbral Waltz
Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 1.2 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 1.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Mastermind Scheme
Losing decks ran 2.8 copies on average, winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.2 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Arrow Trap
Losing decks ran 1.2 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Heavenly Guide +0.75 3 0 1
Zephyr -0.75 0 3 0
Resolute Stand -0.50 1 3 0
Veiling Breeze +0.50 2 0 2
Safeguard Amulet -0.50 1 3 0
Mastermind Scheme -0.50 1 3 0
Scatter Essence +0.50 2 0 2
Blackmarket Broker +0.50 3 1 0
Dungeon Guide -0.50 0 2 2
Stifling Trap -0.50 0 2 2
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen +0.50 3 1 0
Tempest Downfall -0.50 0 2 2
Tristan, Shadowreaver +0.50 2 0 2
Innervate Agility +0.50 3 1 0
Cry for Help +0.50 2 0 0
Favorable Winds +0.50 2 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.50 0 2 0
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar -0.50 0 2 0
Nullifying Mirror -0.50 0 2 0
Crystallized Destiny -0.25 1 2 1
Arrow Trap -0.25 1 2 0
Penumbral Waltz +0.25 2 1 0
Aesan Protector +0.00 1 1 2
Winbless Lookout +0.00 1 1 2
Scavenging Raccoon +0.00 1 1 0
Reclaim +0.00 1 1 2
Diablerie +0.00 1 1 0
Slice and Dice +0.00 1 1 2
Windmill Engineer +0.00 1 1 2
Extraction Incision +0.00 1 1 0
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 2

JSON: /api/events/32405/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike