Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at 三咖啡店冠賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.4% | -26.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Ciel | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Zander | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.0% | -19.2 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Blackmarket Broker, Spirelle, Schwartz Queen. Losers more often ran: Zephyr, Resolute Stand, Safeguard Amulet.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly Guide | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Diablerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Extraction Incision | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |