← Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals
Fire AggroTier 1
at Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals
decks
3
(9.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
11-6-2
overall winrate
63.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.8%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
56.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1268
· median 1254
· range 1122–1428
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1191
Q3 1418
1584
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 19.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.6% | +4.9 |
| Wind Allies | 12.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.0% | +5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Water Fractal | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
