← Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals
Water FractalTier 2
at Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals
decks
2
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
1-8-1
overall winrate
15.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.3%
avg ELO -7.1 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1188
· median 1188
· range 1159–1217
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1191
Q3 1418
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 19.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 12.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Wind Cats | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
