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Fire RileTier 1
at Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 12.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.7% | +3.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.4% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 44.0% | -4.5 |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Cats | 3.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Reduce to Ash, Sword of Shadows.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 79 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 76 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Thunderclap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fireball | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |