← Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals
Water AlliesTier 2
at Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals
decks
1
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1288
· range 1288–1288
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1191
Q3 1418
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 19.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 12.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Water Fractal | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
