← Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals
Water GenbuTier 2
at Card Merchant Westcity DTR Regionals
decks
1
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-0-3
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.1%
avg ELO +5.4 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1427
· median 1427
· range 1427–1427
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1191
Q3 1418
1584
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 19.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 12.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Genbu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
