← 家家美樂地 8月23日 Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 家家美樂地 8月23日 Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aggro 1 3.3% 14 78.6% 62.8% 61.1% 56.9% 1416 ↑ top
2 Fire Rile 10 33.3% 52 62.5% 57.2% 59.9% 55.3% 1401 ↑ top
3 Fire Exia 1 3.3% 12 70.8% 59.3% 58.1% 53.9% 1379 ↑ top
4 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 3.3% 8 75.0% 59.0% 57.7% 54.8% 1389 ↑ top
5 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 6.7% 22 65.9% 57.0% 57.1% 53.5% 1456 ↑ top
6 Fire Crux Hybrid 2 6.7% 16 65.6% 61.2% 55.3% 54.4% 1479 ↑ top
7 Wind Shadowstrike 2 6.7% 11 50.0% 57.0% 50.4% 54.1% 1243 ↓ low
8 Water Fractal 1 3.3% 5 50.0% 51.3% 50.0% 50.3% 1244 ↓ low
9 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 3.3% 7 57.1% 46.5% 48.6% 46.6% 1359
10 Wind Allies 1 3.3% 8 56.2% 49.9% 47.4% 46.5% 1369 ↑ top
11 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 6.7% 7 28.6% 41.0% 46.7% 48.6% 1322
12 Water Allies 3 10.0% 18 38.9% 45.6% 42.9% 46.2% 1232 ↓ low
13 Wind Astra Cleric 2 6.7% 14 35.7% 38.9% 42.5% 42.6% 1316
14 Fire Suited 1 3.3% 8 37.5% 35.2% 42.1% 40.2% 1396 ↑ top
15 Water Ravishing Mill 1 3.3% 7 28.6% 45.8% 41.8% 46.5% 1276
16 Fire Oblation 4 13.3% 15 33.3% 44.1% 41.1% 46.3% 1349
17 Wind Seiryuu 2 6.7% 14 25.0% 38.7% 40.9% 45.0% 1225 ↓ low
18 Wind Byakko 1 3.3% 4 0.0% 37.7% 40.0% 44.5% 1038 ↓ low
19 Fire Suzaku 3 10.0% 14 7.1% 31.2% 35.1% 42.2% 1200 ↓ low