EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 卡庫店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 9.5% | 10 | 90.0% | 63.4% | 63.8% | 56.9% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.8% | 9 | 77.8% | 70.5% | 59.5% | 60.6% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 14.3% | 18 | 66.7% | 54.4% | 56.9% | 52.4% | 1363 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.8% | 8 | 68.8% | 50.6% | 56.0% | 50.3% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Rile | 9 | 42.9% | 44 | 56.8% | 53.3% | 52.3% | 51.6% | 1307 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 4.8% | 7 | 64.3% | 61.1% | 50.4% | 51.3% | 1253 | — |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.8% | 7 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 48.8% | 49.7% | 1293 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.8% | 7 | 42.9% | 52.2% | 46.8% | 49.9% | 1174 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.8% | 7 | 57.1% | 55.3% | 46.7% | 49.0% | 1307 | — |
| 10 | Fire Suited | 4 | 19.0% | 25 | 44.0% | 43.7% | 45.1% | 46.3% | 1309 | — |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 39.8% | 42.7% | 44.2% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.8% | 7 | 28.6% | 43.0% | 42.5% | 46.4% | 1091 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.8% | 8 | 25.0% | 45.8% | 42.4% | 48.3% | 973 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 10.0% | 43.0% | 38.9% | 45.3% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.8% | 7 | 28.6% | 50.5% | 38.8% | 47.2% | 1233 | — |
| 16 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.8% | 7 | 14.3% | 29.2% | 37.8% | 38.8% | 1308 | — |
| 17 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 0.0% | 25.8% | 34.8% | 38.9% | 1256 | — |