← BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships

Fire RileTier 1

at BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships

decks

8 (26.7% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

34 23-11-0

overall winrate

67.6%

ELO-adjusted winrate

59.1% avg ELO +3.3 per match

expected value

54.7% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

51.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill ↑ top

mean ELO 1412 · median 1413 · range 1159–1642 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)

1095 Q1 1172 Q3 1383 1642

75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 12% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike	13.3%	4	2-2-0	50.0%	50.0%	47.2%	-1.8
Fire Aggro	6.7%	4	2-2-0	50.0%	50.0%	42.1%	-5.1
Fire Crux Mage	6.7%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	52.7%	+4.3
Fire Luxem Assassin	6.7%	3	1-2-0	33.3%	42.9%	43.9%	-4.6
Fire Suited	6.7%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	45.6%	-4.2
Fire Ravishing Mill	3.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	54.2%	+6.7
Fire Suzaku	3.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	55.9%	+9.4
Fire Umbra Guardian	3.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Horse and Taxes	3.3%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	69.7%	+18.9
Slimes	3.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Allies	3.3%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	55.2%	+5.0
Water Crux Mage	3.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	56.4%	+10.2
Water Diana	3.3%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	46.9%	-3.0
Water Fractal	3.3%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	60.2%	+9.8
Water Umbra Guardian	3.3%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	61.3%	+8.5
Wind Allies	3.3%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	58.3%	+7.9
Wind Exia	3.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Razorgale	3.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	56.8%	+10.9
Wind Seiryuu	3.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	56.4%	+10.2
Wind Umbra Diana	3.3%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	53.0%	+2.9

Decklists · 8 from this event

The 8 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Resolute Stand, Ghosts of Pendragon. Losers more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Embercrypt Burn, Grand Crusader's Ring.

↑ Played more by winners

Reduce to Ash

Winning decks ran 2.4 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.

Resolute Stand

Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.4.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Ghosts of Pendragon

Winning decks ran 2.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.

Flame Sweep

Winning decks ran 1.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.

Inert Sword

Winning decks ran 0.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.

Stalwart Shieldmate

Winning decks ran 1.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.

↓ Played more by losers