← BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-3-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.3%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287
· median 1287
· range 1287–1287
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1172
Q3 1383
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 26.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.7% | -8.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% | +8.0 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
