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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 26.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.9% | +17.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.2% | -10.3 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Extortion Scheme | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dreamy Unicorn | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |