← BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Fire SuitedTier 2
at BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
4-8-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1144
· median 1144
· range 1125–1164
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1172
Q3 1383
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 26.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.8% | +10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
