← BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Water AlliesTier 2
at BGM Distorted Reflections Store Championships
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1345
· median 1345
· range 1345–1345
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1172
Q3 1383
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 26.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
