Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 22.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Heavenly Guide, Blanche, Sheltering Saint. Losers more often ran: Regal Inquisition.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |