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Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1

at DTR Store Championship

decks
4 (18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18 11-3-4
overall winrate
72.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.0% avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
54.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1466 · median 1462 · range 1408–1532 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075 Q1 1134 Q3 1363 1532
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 22.7% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.1% +0.1
Fire Suited 9.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.9% +4.6
Wind Wakeup Combo 9.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.7% +10.7
Fire Aggro 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.1% +8.2
Fire Arcane 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.9% +9.5
Fire Exia 4.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.1% +0.1
Fire Slimes 4.5% 0
Fire Suzaku 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.2% +6.7
Fire Umbra Ciel 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.9% +7.8
Water Aetherwing 4.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.1% -3.0
Water Allies 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.7% +15.6
Water Astra Ranger 4.5% 0
Water Fractal 4.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.3% -14.0
Water Genbu 4.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.1% -4.8
Water Umbra Guardian 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.4% +11.8
Wind Seiryuu 4.5% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.9% -0.0
Wind Shadowstrike 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.4% +15.0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Heavenly Guide, Blanche, Sheltering Saint. Losers more often ran: Regal Inquisition.

Played more by winners
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Vanish from Sight
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reduce to Ash +0.33 2 1 0
Uncover the Plot -0.33 0 1 2
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.33 1 0 0
Luxera's Map -0.33 0 1 2
Heavenly Guide +0.33 2 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.33 2 1 0
Vanish from Sight +0.33 2 1 0
Crystallized Destiny +0.33 1 0 2
Regal Inquisition -0.33 1 2 0
Tabula of Salvage -0.33 0 1 0
Resolute Stand +0.00 1 1 1
Insignia of the Corhazi +0.00 1 1 0
Staggering Strike +0.00 1 1 0
Peaceful Reunion +0.00 1 1 0
Orb of Hubris +0.00 1 1 0
Coronation Ceremony +0.00 1 1 0
Art of War +0.00 1 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.00 1 1 1
Fast Cure +0.00 1 1 1
Evercurrent Raider +0.00 1 1 0
Blinding Orb +0.00 1 1 0
Exploit Vulnerability +0.00 1 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.00 1 1 1
Sadi, Blood Harvester +0.00 1 1 1
Thieving Cut +0.00 1 1 1
Nullifying Mirror +0.00 1 1 1
Juggle Knives +0.00 1 1 1
Planted Explosive +0.00 1 1 0
Morgan, Soul Guide +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/32615/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin