Fire SuitedTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
1-9-0
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.1%
avg ELO -7.6 per match
expected value
41.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1114
· median 1114
· range 1075–1153
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1134
Q3 1363
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 22.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
