Water AlliesTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.1%
avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 1276–1276
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1134
Q3 1363
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 22.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
