Water FractalTier 1
at DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
56.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1356
· median 1356
· range 1356–1356
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1134
Q3 1363
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 22.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
