Water GenbuTier 1
at DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.8%
avg ELO +6.1 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1365
· median 1365
· range 1365–1365
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1134
Q3 1363
1532
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 22.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.8 |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Genbu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
