Water AetherwingTier 1
at DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-1-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.2%
avg ELO +8.7 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1252
· median 1252
· range 1252–1252
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1134
Q3 1363
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 22.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
