← MVP x DTR Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at MVP x DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
8-5-0
overall winrate
61.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1502
· median 1502
· range 1472–1532
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1209
Q3 1403
1532
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 46.9% | -1.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
